Missouri Revenue Numbers Miss Estimates

As lawmakers gathered on the third floor of the Missouri Capitol for the start of the legislative session, the focus was on next year's budget.

Meanwhile, down on the first floor, the state's budget director pored over some numbers for this year's budget she called "disappointing."

General revenue collections will need to increase by at least 4 percent for the remainder of this fiscal year, ending June 30, to hit estimated revenue projections, Missouri Budget Director Linda Luebbering told Missouri Journal.

State revenue collections inched up by only 1.2 percent to $3.49 billion during the fiscal year-to-date ending Dec. 31, according to a report released by the Missouri Office of Administration.

While it was not unexpected to see a drop in corporate income tax collections, it was concerning to see a drop in sales tax collections in December, Luebbering said.

It is still possible to hit the estimate of 2.7 percent growth for the full fiscal year, avoiding the need for further budget restrictions, she said, adding the govenor is keeping his eye on the numbers. 

"If the governor needs to take action, he will," Luebbering said.

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon will present details on his fiscal 2013 budget plan for lawmakers to consider at his State of the State Address on Jan. 17 in a joint session of the Missouri General Assembly.

During opening day ceremonies for the start of this year's session, legislative leaders from both chambers said the priority for fiscal 2013 is to balance the state's budget without increasing taxes.

Unemployment rates fall, while jobless claims rise

Economic data regarding unemployment continues to paint a mixed picture. 

The unemployment rate fell in every metropolitan area throughout the state, including St. Louis, where the rate hit 8.2 percent in November compared to 9.5 percent in November 2010.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report on unemployment by state and metro area, which noted employees on nonfarm payrolls in the St. Louis area also increased by 0.5 percent.

Missouri lost jobs, however, in the service, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing industries.

In a seperate report on weekly unemployment claims, the state was one of 19 across the country with more than 1,000 initial claims. Initial claims in Missouri increased by 3,236 following layoffs.

The weekly jobless claims by the U.S. Department of Labor provide more of an immediate economic guage of the job market, whereas the unemployment rates provides more detailed information.

Missouri consumers carrying lower debt load

Why must economic news always come with caveats? 

The debt burden for Missouri consumers has declined since 2006, according to a research report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. However, the total amount of debt held has increased.

Consumers need to pay 12.9 percent of their monthly household income to cover the minimum payments due on their debt, which includes payments on mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.

The monthly percentage due has declined from 13.6 percent in 2006.

The total amount of debt held by the average consumer in Missouri, meanwhile, has increased from $50,900 in 2006 to $54,300 in 2011, according to the research on consumer credit conditions.

Falling interest rates have pushed the minimum monthly payments due lower for consumers, the report notes, adding any future rise in interest rates could raise debt burdens substantially.

By Brian R. Hook, brhook@missourijournal.com, (314) 482-7944

Hook is editor of Missouri Journal, which tracks the economy across the Show-Me State. 

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